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9.7 Probability

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In this section, you will:
  • Construct probability models.
  • Compute probabilities of equally likely outcomes.
  • Compute probabilities of the union of two events.
  • Use the complement rule to find probabilities.
  • Compute probability using counting theory.
Spaghetti map of the possible paths for a hurricane over the Southeastern United States
An example of a “spaghetti model,” which can be used to predict possible paths of a tropical storm. The figure is for illustrative purposes only and does not model any particular storm.

Residents of the Southeastern United States are all too familiar with charts, known as spaghetti models, such as the one in [link] . They combine a collection of weather data to predict the most likely path of a hurricane. Each colored line represents one possible path. The group of squiggly lines can begin to resemble strands of spaghetti, hence the name. In this section, we will investigate methods for making these types of predictions.

Constructing probability models

Suppose we roll a six-sided number cube. Rolling a number cube is an example of an experiment    , or an activity with an observable result. The numbers on the cube are possible results, or outcomes    , of this experiment. The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called the sample space    of the experiment. The sample space for this experiment is { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 } .   An event    is any subset of a sample space.

The likelihood of an event is known as probability    . The probability of an event p is a number that always satisfies 0 ≤ p ≤ 1 , where 0 indicates an impossible event and 1 indicates a certain event. A probability model    is a mathematical description of an experiment listing all possible outcomes and their associated probabilities. For instance, if there is a 1% chance of winning a raffle and a 99% chance of losing the raffle, a probability model would look much like [link] .

Outcome Probability
Winning the raffle 1%
Losing the raffle 99%

The sum of the probabilities listed in a probability model must equal 1, or 100%.

Given a probability event where each event is equally likely, construct a probability model.

  1. Identify every outcome.
  2. Determine the total number of possible outcomes.
  3. Compare each outcome to the total number of possible outcomes.

Constructing a probability model

Construct a probability model for rolling a single, fair die, with the event being the number shown on the die.

Begin by making a list of all possible outcomes for the experiment. The possible outcomes are the numbers that can be rolled: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. There are six possible outcomes that make up the sample space.

Assign probabilities to each outcome in the sample space by determining a ratio of the outcome to the number of possible outcomes. There is one of each of the six numbers on the cube, and there is no reason to think that any particular face is more likely to show up than any other one, so the probability of rolling any number is   1 6 .

Outcome Roll of 1 Roll of 2 Roll of 3 Roll of 4 Roll of 5 Roll of 6
Probability 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 6
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Do probabilities always have to be expressed as fractions?

No. Probabilities can be expressed as fractions, decimals, or percents. Probability must always be a number between 0 and 1, inclusive of 0 and 1.

Questions & Answers

Three charges q_{1}=+3\mu C, q_{2}=+6\mu C and q_{3}=+8\mu C are located at (2,0)m (0,0)m and (0,3) coordinates respectively. Find the magnitude and direction acted upon q_{2} by the two other charges.Draw the correct graphical illustration of the problem above showing the direction of all forces.
Kate Reply
To solve this problem, we need to first find the net force acting on charge q_{2}. The magnitude of the force exerted by q_{1} on q_{2} is given by F=\frac{kq_{1}q_{2}}{r^{2}} where k is the Coulomb constant, q_{1} and q_{2} are the charges of the particles, and r is the distance between them.
Muhammed
What is the direction and net electric force on q_{1}= 5µC located at (0,4)r due to charges q_{2}=7mu located at (0,0)m and q_{3}=3\mu C located at (4,0)m?
Kate Reply
what is the change in momentum of a body?
Eunice Reply
what is a capacitor?
Raymond Reply
Capacitor is a separation of opposite charges using an insulator of very small dimension between them. Capacitor is used for allowing an AC (alternating current) to pass while a DC (direct current) is blocked.
Gautam
A motor travelling at 72km/m on sighting a stop sign applying the breaks such that under constant deaccelerate in the meters of 50 metres what is the magnitude of the accelerate
Maria Reply
please solve
Sharon
8m/s²
Aishat
What is Thermodynamics
Muordit
velocity can be 72 km/h in question. 72 km/h=20 m/s, v^2=2.a.x , 20^2=2.a.50, a=4 m/s^2.
Mehmet
A boat travels due east at a speed of 40meter per seconds across a river flowing due south at 30meter per seconds. what is the resultant speed of the boat
Saheed Reply
50 m/s due south east
Someone
which has a higher temperature, 1cup of boiling water or 1teapot of boiling water which can transfer more heat 1cup of boiling water or 1 teapot of boiling water explain your . answer
Ramon Reply
I believe temperature being an intensive property does not change for any amount of boiling water whereas heat being an extensive property changes with amount/size of the system.
Someone
Scratch that
Someone
temperature for any amount of water to boil at ntp is 100⁰C (it is a state function and and intensive property) and it depends both will give same amount of heat because the surface available for heat transfer is greater in case of the kettle as well as the heat stored in it but if you talk.....
Someone
about the amount of heat stored in the system then in that case since the mass of water in the kettle is greater so more energy is required to raise the temperature b/c more molecules of water are present in the kettle
Someone
definitely of physics
Haryormhidey Reply
how many start and codon
Esrael Reply
what is field
Felix Reply
physics, biology and chemistry this is my Field
ALIYU
field is a region of space under the influence of some physical properties
Collete
what is ogarnic chemistry
WISDOM Reply
determine the slope giving that 3y+ 2x-14=0
WISDOM
Another formula for Acceleration
Belty Reply
a=v/t. a=f/m a
IHUMA
innocent
Adah
pratica A on solution of hydro chloric acid,B is a solution containing 0.5000 mole ofsodium chlorid per dm³,put A in the burret and titrate 20.00 or 25.00cm³ portion of B using melting orange as the indicator. record the deside of your burret tabulate the burret reading and calculate the average volume of acid used?
Nassze Reply
how do lnternal energy measures
Esrael
Two bodies attract each other electrically. Do they both have to be charged? Answer the same question if the bodies repel one another.
JALLAH Reply
No. According to Isac Newtons law. this two bodies maybe you and the wall beside you. Attracting depends on the mass och each body and distance between them.
Dlovan
Are you really asking if two bodies have to be charged to be influenced by Coulombs Law?
Robert
like charges repel while unlike charges atttact
Raymond
What is specific heat capacity
Destiny Reply
Specific heat capacity is a measure of the amount of energy required to raise the temperature of a substance by one degree Celsius (or Kelvin). It is measured in Joules per kilogram per degree Celsius (J/kg°C).
AI-Robot
specific heat capacity is the amount of energy needed to raise the temperature of a substance by one degree Celsius or kelvin
ROKEEB
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Source:  OpenStax, College algebra. OpenStax CNX. Feb 06, 2015 Download for free at https://legacy.cnx.org/content/col11759/1.3
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